What’s Quietly Reshaping 2026

Predictions for the new year

Hi friends,

As the year winds down and everyone starts publishing “what’s next” lists, I wanted to step back and do something slightly different. Instead of chasing novelty, this is a set of predictions rooted in signals that have been compounding quietly for years, across culture, capital, geography, and behavior.

None of these are moonshots. In fact, that’s the point. These are not speculative leaps so much as trajectories that are already visible, now reaching scale. Population flows, production infrastructure, protein economics, luxury signaling, media financing, and political leverage are starting to rhyme in ways that feel increasingly hard to ignore.

Think of this less as a forecast and more as a map: where momentum is already building, where pressure is accumulating, and where the next set of winners is likely to emerge, not by accident, but by alignment.

Here’s how I see 2026 taking shape.

#1 The South keeps setting America’s cultural “default settings”

U.S. culture will continue to shift away from a coastal monopoly and toward Southern metros as primary engines of taste, talent, and mainstream narrative.

Why this is a real trend (not a vibe):

• Population and migration gravity: The U.S. Census Bureau’s latest estimates show the South added 1.8M people from 2023–2024 (+1.4%), more than all other regions combined and is set to continue on this trajectory.

• Permanent production infrastructure in the South doesn’t just move jobs, it exports culture: Taylor Sheridan’s launch of SGS Studios in Fort Worth, Texas’s largest production facility, matters less because it exists and more because of what it produces at scale: stories rooted in Southern landscapes, values, archetypes, and aesthetics. When creators own production capacity locally, the cultural lens shifts with it.

• Southern culture is now mainstream culture: Taylor Swift, country’s resurgence, bull riding, and Southern sports culture aren’t subcultures anymore, they’re the emotional center of American pop culture, increasingly shaping what feels authentic, exciting, and worth paying attention to nationwide.

#2 Dining: the mid-tier squeeze intensifies, especially in protein-forward categories

Mid-tier restaurants will face a sharper survival divide: either become meaningfully premium (experience plus differentiation) or meaningfully efficient (value plus throughput). “Middle steakhouse” concepts are particularly exposed.

• Protein demand is resilient, but cost pressure is real: USDA/industry outlook materials emphasize that animal-protein demand has remained strong, while inflation and consumer spending patterns push more households toward “value engineering” (at home and away-from-home).

• Beef supply constraints are structural, not cyclical: The U.S. cattle herd is near historic lows, with total inventory at its lowest mid-year level since record-keeping began in 1973. Tight supply has pushed retail beef prices to record highs, with steak prices rising roughly 16–17% year-over-year in 2025. Analysts expect production to remain constrained through at least 2026, as herd rebuilding is slow and highly sensitive to feed costs, land availability, and weather conditions.

#3 Travel: premium stays strong, but “logo luxury” keeps losing to “in-the-know luxury”

High-end travel demand stays resilient, but cookie-cutter hotels will increasingly underperform experiences with identity, scarcity, and locality. Quiet-luxury logic will continue to influence travel behavior: signaling shifts from “brand name” to “taste.”

• Luxury travel demand remains structurally healthy and is increasingly defined by slower itineraries, fewer crowds, cultural immersion, wellness, and meaning, not just amenities.

• Major hotel groups are still leaning into luxury growth and pipeline expansion, reflecting where they believe pricing power will persist.

• Status signaling will continue to shift from logos to cultural literacy: In 2026, “quiet luxury” will function less as an aesthetic and more as a social signal of insider knowledge, where status is conveyed through where you went, what you accessed, and what you know, not what you wore.

• Knowledge over logo as social flex: Platforms like Instagram will increasingly reward contextual signals (rare locations, limited-access experiences, niche brands) over overt brand logos, reinforcing a form of cultural capital that privileges discovery and fluency over visibility.

#4 Retail: Bass Pro will win retail, creating a blueprint for others

Retail winners will increasingly resemble immersive category worlds rather than transactional stores. Bass Pro Shops sits at the center of this shift and will continue to outperform by leveraging structural changes and trends to turn product categories into identity-driven experiences.

• Protein economics are reshaping consumer behavior: Rising beef prices, tight cattle inventories, and broader food inflation are pushing more consumers toward hunting, fishing, and self-sourced protein. This has increased participation and interest in outdoor skills, equipment, and education, expanding demand beyond hobbyists into mainstream households. See prediction #2.

• Cultural reinforcement through media and influencers: The resurgence of hunting, fishing, and outdoor self-sufficiency is closely tied to the broader MAHA / health / resilience discourse and amplified by high-reach influencers such as Joe Rogan and adjacent creator ecosystems. These narratives normalize outdoor identity as aspirational rather than fringe.

• Southern cultural values are going mainstream: Themes of self-reliance, frontier competence, durability, and connection to land, long associated with Southern culture, are increasingly shaping national taste. Bass Pro’s aesthetic and storytelling align naturally with this shift, reinforcing its relevance across regions. See prediction #1.

• Experiential retail continues to outperform generic formats: As undifferentiated retail struggles, stores that combine education, spectacle, community, and product discovery are capturing more dwell time and emotional engagement. Bass Pro’s aquariums, museums, indoor ranges, and learning environments exemplify this model at scale.

#5 Brands become producers, not just sponsors

Brands will increasingly move upstream from sponsorship and placement into co-production, deploying real capital to earn real upside across IP ownership, distribution value, and commerce rights, rather than paying for impressions.

• Content ownership compounds brand value: Drive to Survive fundamentally altered F1’s economics, contributing to a multi-year surge in U.S. viewership, sponsorship value, and franchise valuations. Similarly, House of Guinness demonstrates how brand-originated storytelling can function as premium entertainment rather than advertising, extending relevance, not interrupting it.

• Organizational shift toward narrative ownership: A growing number of global brands are hiring Chief Storyteller / Chief Content / Chief Narrative roles, reflecting a recognition that storytelling is no longer a downstream marketing function. Once narrative leadership exists internally, expanding from campaigns into owned content formats (series, franchises, recurring IP) becomes a logical next step.

• Studios and streamers are capital-intensive and capital-constrained: Premium film and series production requires sustained upfront investment, while studios face margin pressure and risk concentration. Co-financing with brands lowers capital exposure while preserving creative ambition, creating structurally aligned incentives rather than transactional sponsorships.

• New intermediaries are formalizing the model: Firms like Superconnector Studios have emerged to sit at the intersection of brands, creators, and distributors, structuring deals where brands move beyond ‘ad hoc’ sponsorships to underwrite production. This shift marks the transition of branded content from a marketing expense into a formal, long-term corporate asset.

#6 Finance: streamers begin behaving more like private equity, because they can manufacture demand
Streaming platforms will increasingly structure hybrid “capital plus content” deals, pairing distribution and storytelling with economic participation (revenue share, equity-like exposure, or long-dated options), particularly in sports and niche IP with high narrative density.

• The docuseries flywheel is already proven at scale: Drive to Survive materially increased F1’s global audience, accelerated U.S. market penetration, and coincided with a multi-year expansion in team valuations, sponsorship demand, and media rights value. Storytelling demonstrably converts attention into monetizable fandom across tickets, merchandise, and brand partnerships.

• Distribution power creates asymmetric value uplift: Platforms with global reach can meaningfully increase the value of underlying assets by expanding audience, narrative relevance, and cultural footprint. When storytelling changes the demand curve for an asset, pure licensing becomes economically suboptimal relative to structures that capture part of the upside created.

• Capital efficiency incentives are aligning: Sports leagues, teams, and niche competitions often lack global distribution and narrative amplification, while platforms face rising content costs and competition for differentiated IP. Hybrid structures, combining production, promotion, and financial participation, reduce risk for both sides while aligning incentives around long-term asset appreciation rather than one-off rights fees.

#7 Paramount ultimately acquires Warner Bros. Discovery.

You know I had to make another prediction here…

Once bids go public, this deal shifts from financial optimization to pride, signaling, and political calculus. The Ellisons have already framed the pursuit as optional, but reputational dynamics make walking away increasingly difficult. As resistance hardens, Paramount is likely to raise its offer to close decisively.

Regulatory signaling further favors this outcome. Trump has incentives to ensure CNN lands in perceived “safe hands,” (especially considering the political turmoil on the Republican side ref Infighting at Turning Point USA) and Paramount’s moves at CBS, including leadership reshuffles and the elevation of Bari Weiss, have materially de-risked approval. In that context, Paramount-controlled WBD becomes the path of least resistance.

Could WBD instill a poison pill? Possibly but at this point this would face significant legal challenges due to the boards fiduciary duties and Paramount’s signaling that they want to make a deal.

What Paramount SHOULD Do Instead

Walk away from WBD but force Netflix to concede HBO Max and spend a fraction on high value IP.

• Use regulation as leverage, not as a weapon: Roughly 45% of HBO Max users already subscribe to Netflix, while only 15% of Netflix users have HBO Max. Paramount should push regulators to require Netflix to relinquish HBO Max in exchange for approval, materially weakening Netflix’s incentive to win WBD while strengthening Paramount’s streaming position.

• Redeploy capital into IP, not platforms: With HBO Max secured, Paramount should acquire Lionsgate and Legendary, IP-rich, significantly less capital-intensive, and far cleaner to integrate than WBD, creating a powerful franchise engine without inheriting cable complexity.

• Cable is tricky. I’d recommend avoiding owning declining cable while preserving influence: This approach allows Paramount to bypass the cable drag of WBD while still benefiting from political leverage through CBS News, which remains a more efficient influence asset than CNN. The above might force cable ownership however which is a small price to pay.

What Netflix SHOULD Do

Netflix should drive the WBD price up and then concede.

Overpaying for WBD would burden Netflix with legacy cable, regulatory scrutiny, and cultural integration risk. A more rational path is to let Paramount absorb that cost (and be paralyzed by leverage) while Netflix instead acquires Legendary and Lionsgate, gaining franchise depth and production scale without the antitrust or operational baggage.

Shoutout to Robert for brainstorming this with me…

Conclusion

Taken together, these predictions point to the same underlying shift: value is concentrating around narrative control, cultural fluency, and the ability to manufacture demand, not just respond to it.

The South isn’t just growing. It’s setting the tone.
Mid-tier dining isn’t just struggling. It’s being structurally squeezed.
Luxury isn’t disappearing. It’s becoming quieter, rarer, and more coded.
Retail isn’t dying. It’s polarizing into worlds and warehouses.
Brands aren’t advertising. They’re underwriting culture.
Streamers aren’t distributors. They’re starting to look like private equity firms with global reach.
And media consolidation isn’t just about scale, it’s about leverage, signaling, and control of narrative infrastructure.

What connects all of this is intentionality. The winners in 2026 won’t be the loudest or the biggest. They’ll be the ones who understand where cultural gravity is moving, and position themselves early enough to benefit when it settles.

As always, curious where you agree, where you disagree, and which of these you think I’ll regret writing down in twelve months.

See you next year 😉
Daniel